The story of Nasir El-Rufai in the Bola Ahmed Tinubu presidency reads less like ordinary politics and more like a carefully written play — full of suspense, contradictions, and unanswered questions. His journey from kingmaker to rejected nominee, from disappearance to open defiance, from flirting with the opposition to reemerging as a voice of resistance, is one that demands deeper analysis.
Could it all be a genuine rebellion? Or is El-Rufai, in fact, the Trojan horse of 2027, playing a dangerous but deliberate role in a political strategy larger than himself?
The Contradictions of El-Rufai’s Journey
1. The Kingmaker Role
El-Rufai was not a bystander in Tinubu’s rise. He mobilized political support, especially in the North, and was seen as a trusted strategist in Tinubu’s camp during the fierce 2023 elections. His reward was almost certain — a place in the federal cabinet.
2. The Nomination and the Rejection
Tinubu nominated him for ministerial office. But he was rejected, citing security clearance issues. Yet, curiously, the same security findings that disqualified him have not been used to prosecute or silence him. In Nigeria’s political culture, rejection of this magnitude often spells political death. But not for El-Rufai.
3. The Vanishing Act and Return
He disappeared briefly, supposedly to pursue studies abroad. On return, he began to fire salvos at the government, openly criticizing economic policies, and allegedly boasting of cutting short Tinubu’s first tenure.
4. Romance With the Opposition
His new alignment with figures like Atiku Abubakar and the SDP has been interpreted as a betrayal. Yet, for someone who knows the political ruthlessness of Tinubu, El-Rufai’s open defiance appears almost too bold to be simple rebellion.
The Puzzle of Federal Silence
Nigeria’s federal government is not known for tolerance of dissent within its inner circle. Those who break ranks usually face the full weight of state institutions — EFCC, DSS, media trials, or even outright political isolation. Yet El-Rufai remains untouched. No court case.
No legal battles. No harassment.
Why?
Is it weakness on Tinubu’s part, or is it evidence that El-Rufai is still very much part of a bigger script?
Trojan Horse Theory
A Trojan horse appears as an enemy within but secretly advances the agenda of its true master.
i. By aligning with opposition, El-Rufai may be positioned to fracture northern votes, weakening Tinubu’s strongest challengers.
ii. His criticisms of Tinubu could create the illusion of independence, making him attractive to dissatisfied voters, while still serving a strategic purpose for Tinubu’s reelection.
iii. Should Tinubu triumph in 2027, El-Rufai may be rewarded in 2031 — perhaps as the northern presidential candidate of APC’s choice, balancing the equation of rotation and ambition.
But What If He Is Truly Rebellious?
There is, of course, another possibility: El-Rufai may genuinely be playing his own game. His history is one of bold gambles, and he may well believe he can galvanize the North, leverage his reputation as a “performer,” and ride on the discontent of the masses to destabilize Tinubu’s reelection.
But if this is the case, then he risks underestimating Tinubu’s political tenacity, federal might, and mastery of elite bargaining. Few who have crossed Tinubu politically have emerged unscathed.
Conclusion: The Enigma of 2027
El-Rufai’s moves defy easy interpretation. He is either the bravest rebel in Nigerian politics today or the most carefully concealed Trojan horse in Tinubu’s 2027 arsenal. Either way, his actions are reshaping conversations in the North and unsettling both ruling and opposition camps.
As Nigerians prepare for the 2027 elections, one question will persist:
Is El-Rufai truly fighting Tinubu, or is he secretly fighting for him?
Only time — and the ballot box — will tell.
• Ifatimehin Olayemi Olufemi, writes from Gombe
