President Bola Tinubu has been projected to secure 20 states in the 2027 presidential election, ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Peter Obi.
The projection was contained in a political forecast by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, which allocated nine states to Atiku and eight to Obi based on the political dynamics currently prevailing across the country.
Tinubu is projected to maintain a stronghold on the South-West, with the six states in the region placed in his column. Lagos, his political stronghold, is also expected to remain with the president.
The forecast further places Kano State in Tinubu’s camp, giving the president a significant presence in one of Northern Nigeria’s largest electoral states and a key battleground in presidential elections.
PIG attributed Tinubu’s projected advantage partly to what it described as the administration’s efforts to stabilise the economy and reposition the country.
Atiku, according to the forecast, is expected to retain substantial support in parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and some states in the North-East and North-West.
His extensive political network and experience from previous presidential contests are identified as factors that could underpin his support in the region.
Obi, meanwhile, is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among those allocated to him. The projection reflects Obi’s strong performance in several parts of the country during the 2023 presidential election.
PIG stressed that the projection is not a prediction of the final election outcome, noting that Nigeria’s political landscape remains subject to changes ahead of the 2027 polls.
The group said its assessment was based on the political situation at the time of the analysis and a scenario surrounding and necessitated the forecast.
The 2027 contest is expected to be shaped by the candidates’ ability to consolidate their existing political bases while attracting support beyond their traditional strongholds.
For now, the PIG projection puts Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight.