When the petrol subsidy was removed in May 2023, Nigerians were told that the country could no longer afford it. The money saved would give government room to breathe, ease the pressure on public finances and pay for roads, hospitals and other things the economy needed. The foreign exchange reforms that followed were sold to us in the same way, as part of the cure for problems we had lived with for too long.
On paper, the argument made sense. Government would have more to spend, the economy would settle down, and in time ordinary people would feel the difference.
More than three years on, many of us are still waiting to feel it. Transport fares, food prices and hospital bills have gone up. Many roads are as bad as they were, and some are worse. Whatever we earn buys less than it did. So, I want to ask a simple question. If government now has much more money to share and spend, why are so many Nigerians still struggling?
I am not asking this on behalf of any political party. I am asking it as a citizen who has spent some time with the figures.
I went through the monthly disbursement reports of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), as published by the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), from June 2023 to July 2026. I also looked at what is known about inflation, poverty, public spending and the cost of living. What I found is not a simple story. Government finances are stronger in some important ways. States are spending more on capital projects. The economy shows signs of steadying. But for most households, the relief has been small compared with the hardship.
Receiving the money was never the difficult part. What we need to know now is how much of it has been spent, what it was spent on, and what the people have to show for it.
What the three tiers received
Between June 2023 and July 2026, the Federal Government, the 36 states and the 774 local government councils received net FAAC allocations of N52,678,673,356,507.62, or N52.6787 trillion. I use net figures throughout, meaning what was left after deductions at source for debts and other obligations. I apply the same rule to Benue and Taraba later in this piece.
The Federal Government received #16,646,112,770,339.45 (N16.6461 trillion). The state governments received N21,653,719,443,984.87 (N21.6537 trillion), and the local government councils #14,378,841,142,183.30 (#14.3788 trillion). The monthly figures show how fast the money grew. In June 2023 the three tiers shared N0.8358 trillion. By July 2026 the monthly figure had reached N2.6045 trillion, a little more than three times as much.
Suppose the three tiers had gone on receiving the June 2023 amount every month. From July 2023 to July 2026, they would have received N20.9174 trillion less than they actually did. By my calculation, that extra money was shared as follows: N5.9620 trillion to the Federal Government, N8.9229 trillion to the states and N6.0325 trillion to the councils.
I must be careful here. This extra #20.9174 trillion did not all come from removing the subsidy. FAAC allocations also move with the exchange rate, oil receipts, tax collections and production levels. Nor is it the same thing as subsidy savings, which the Federal Ministry of Finance puts at about #15.8 trillion across the three tiers. It is simply the difference between what came in and what would have come in at the old monthly level. Even so, it is a great deal of money, and it is fair to ask what it has done.
Why the naira figures can mislead
The naira has lost much of its value since 2023, and prices have risen sharply. A government that receives three times its old allocation cannot buy three times as much with it. To get a truer picture, I looked at the allocations in three ways: in naira, in dollars, and after allowing for inflation.
In June 2023, when the dollar was about N462 at the official rate before the exchange rates were unified, the monthly net allocation was worth about US$1.81 billion. In July 2026, at N1,333.54 to the dollar (the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market rate on 19 October 2026), it was worth about US$1.95 billion. In dollar terms, that is a rise of only about 8%.
After allowing for inflation at home, the increase is much bigger. Both measures matter. Imported machinery and medicines are paid for at the exchange rate. Local contracts, labour and goods made in Nigeria follow prices at home.
Over a longer period, the picture changes again. After allowing for inflation and population growth, FAAC allocations per head in 2025 were about 23% higher than in 2022, but still about 26% lower than in 2019. In other words, much of the recent growth is a recovery from the very low point of the subsidy years. That does not make the money small. It does mean we should be careful about calling it a windfall, and more careful still about how it is used.
What households have paid
While the allocations went up, households paid more for almost everything.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, petrol averaged N238.11 a litre in May 2023. In October 2026 it sells for around N1,400. On 9 October 2026, NNPC stations were selling at between #1,355 in Lagos and #1,435 in Yobe. The price was N1,410 in Benue and N1,420 in Taraba.
Petrol prices reach far beyond car owners. Transporters pass the cost to passengers. Traders pay more to move their goods, and farmers pay more to get produce to market. Shops and small businesses that run on generators spend more on fuel. Workers and students pay more to get to work and school. Some businesses raise their prices. Others cut production or stop hiring. Either way, the family at the end of the chain has to choose between food, transport, medical care, school fees and savings.
People often hear that inflation is falling and expect prices to come down. That is not what falling inflation means. It means prices are rising more slowly than before, from a level that is already high. A family whose income did not keep up with earlier increases does not get back what it lost just because the inflation rate has eased.
Using the Bureau’s headline inflation rates for June 2024 (34.19%), June 2025 (22.22%) and June 2026 (15.91%), prices rose by roughly 90% between June 2023 and June 2026. The consumer price index was rebased in 2025, so this figure is an approximation.
Over the same period, the national minimum wage went from #30,000 to #70,000 a month, an increase of about 133%. On paper, a minimum-wage earner has gained a little against inflation. But the minimum wage is not what most Nigerians earn. Many work in the informal sector, earn irregular incomes, or have had no increase at all. And spending is not the same for every household. Transport may take most of one family’s income, while food or medical bills swallow another’s. A family can earn more naira than before and still not cope.
Poverty
The World Bank estimates that 56% of Nigerians lived below the national poverty line in 2023. The figure rose to 61% in 2024 and 63% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund’s 2026 review of Nigeria also points to deep poverty and widespread food insecurity. These estimates use different methods and periods, but they agree on how serious the problem is.
There is some better news. In its October 2026 update, the World Bank reported that growth picked up to 4.2% in the first half of 2026, and that the poverty rate stopped rising for the first time since 2019.
I welcome that. But a poverty rate that has stopped rising at about 63% is still a poverty rate of about 63%. Most Nigerians remain poor, even if their numbers are no longer growing. Growth, stability and higher revenue matter. What makes them count is whether they turn into jobs, better incomes, affordable services and better living conditions. An economy can steady itself long before the households in it recover.
Where is the money going?
For me, this is the heart of the matter.
Public money passes through several stages. It is received, then appropriated in a budget, then spent, and only then, if all goes well, does it produce something people can use. A good result at one stage does not guarantee a good result at the next. A larger allocation does not tell us how much was budgeted for capital projects. A capital budget does not tell us how much was released. A payment recorded in the books does not tell us whether the project was finished, whether it works, or whether anyone benefits.
At the federal level, the Ministry of Finance’s own reform scorecard lists wages, external debt service, electricity subsidy and infrastructure among the main uses of the extra resources.
It also shows heavy new borrowing. Salaries and debts must be paid, and I do not dispute that. But these costs should be published, and the results should be measurable.
The states tell an interesting story. The World Bank’s October 2026 assessment found that state revenues rose by about 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, and state spending by about 92%. The share of state spending going to capital projects rose from 46% to 61%, with transport receiving the largest increase.
It would therefore be wrong to say that the extra money has produced nothing. Some states have clearly invested more, and they should get credit for it.
But the same assessment shows that education’s share of state spending fell from 14.9% in 2021 to 12.1% in 2025. Health stayed at about 7%. Social protection rose from 1.4% to 4.4%. A falling share does not by itself prove that schools or hospitals got worse, because the amount spent may still have gone up. Equally, spending more does not prove that services improved.
The real questions are about quality and reach. How much of the new capital spending got to rural communities? How many farm and market roads were opened or repaired? How many primary health centres now have staff and drugs? How many schools have classrooms fit for learning? How many rural water schemes are still working? Answering these needs project records, audited accounts, site visits and the testimony of the people who live there. Without that kind of evidence, we should not simply accept government claims of success. Nor should we accept claims that nothing has been done.
Benue and Taraba
The figures for Benue and Taraba bring the question closer to home.
Between June 2023 and July 2026, Benue State and its 23 local government councils received net FAAC allocations of N907,615,295,593.59. Of this, N503,092,014,372.97 went to the State Government and N404,523,281,220.62 to the councils.
Over the same period, Taraba State and its 16 councils received net allocations of #695,403,049,758.36. The State Government received ₩420,913,487,186.36 and the councils N274,489,562,572.00.
Benue’s combined monthly receipt rose from #13.6812 billion in June 2023 to #40.5972 billion in July 2026. Taraba’s rose from N10.5409 billion to N32.5807 billion.
These are amounts received. They do not tell us how much was left for new projects after salaries and other obligations, how much went into infrastructure, or how good the work was. What they do give us is a firm basis for asking to see the accounts.
In both states, people’s livelihoods depend on rural roads, access to farmland, health centres, schools, water and, above all, security. I do not expect every road to have been rebuilt or every community changed within three years. Governments have many demands on them, and projects take time. What I do expect is to see identifiable improvements, and records the public can check.
Every local government should publish its monthly FAAC receipts, its approved budget, what it actually spent, its capital projects, its contract awards and how far each project has gone.
A citizen should be able to look up what was budgeted for a borehole, compare it with what such a borehole costs, confirm that it was drilled and see that it is giving water. The same goes for roads, schools, clinics and markets. Where a project is unfinished, the people should be told why, how much has been spent, what remains to be paid and when it will be completed. Asking for this is not an attack on anybody. It is how public money should be managed.
The local government question
Local government needs special attention, because many of the services closest to rural people are its responsibility, alone or with the state.
The Supreme Court’s judgment of July 2024 on local government financial autonomy strengthened the legal case for paying councils their allocations directly. Whether that judgment has given councils real control of their money, and whether they are using it well, can only be judged from what happens in practice.
It should be possible to follow a council’s allocation all the way from the FAAC report to the money received, the budget, the spending, the finished project and the service people actually get. When a council receives large allocations and its people still have no working health centre, no safe water, no passable roads and no sanitation, they are owed an explanation, backed by records.
I would not assume that every shortfall is due to corruption. Insecurity, weak administration, poor choice of projects, rising building costs and competing demands can all play a part. These possibilities should be looked into, not taken for granted. But difficulty does not remove the duty to account for public money. The more money an institution holds on the people’s behalf, the stronger their right to know what it has done with it.
How we compare with the United States
A comparison with the United States helps to show how income, prices and living standards fit together.
World Bank figures put Nigeria’s GDP per person in 2025 at about US$1,224, against about US$90,027 in the United States. GDP per person is not what the average worker earns. It is total output divided by population, a rough measure of how much an economy produces per head. Adjusting for the lower cost of local goods and services in Nigeria narrows the gap, but it remains very wide.
Wages bring it closer to daily life. At N1,333.54 to the dollar, Nigeria’s #70,000 minimum wage is worth about US$52 a month. The American federal minimum wage of US$7.25 an hour comes to about US$1,257 a month, assuming 173.3 paid hours. The two are not exactly alike. Many American states pay more than the federal minimum, and the comparison leaves out tax, hours worked and social benefits. Still, the difference is hard to ignore.
Take petrol. At about N1,400, a litre in Nigeria costs about US$1.05. In the United States, the national average on 8 October 2026 was US$4.36 a gallon (AAA), about US$1.15 a litre. The price is almost the same. What is not the same is how much of a worker’s pay it takes. The dollar price of petrol is only part of the problem. The bigger part is how little the average Nigerian earns to pay it.
This is why a stable naira, welcome as it is, will not on its own make people better off. It helps importers, and it helps consumers who buy imported goods. Lasting improvement will come from higher productivity, better-paid jobs, lower costs at home and public services that work. We need the stability, and we also need to deal with how little most households can afford.
Beyond the slogans
The subsidy debate is too often reduced to keeping the subsidy or removing it. That leaves too much out. A fair assessment would look at what the subsidy cost, who really benefited from it, the damage the old arrangement did, the cost its removal has imposed, and how well vulnerable households have been protected.
The results of the reform should be judged by the same standard. Where revenue collection, the foreign exchange market and state capital spending have improved, we should say so. We should also be free to ask whether the extra money is being used in ways people can see, measure and check. A citizen can acknowledge progress and still ask for proof. There is nothing contradictory about that.
What should happen now
I would make six suggestions.
Every tier of government should publish its monthly FAAC receipts, deductions, wage bill, capital spending and contract awards in a form ordinary citizens can read and compare.
The Federal Ministry of Finance should publish a full account of the savings from subsidy removal: how much was saved, where it went and what it built, with the location and status of each project.
The Supreme Court judgment on local government autonomy should be carried out in practice, so that council allocations reach the councils and chairmen answer directly to their people.
A fixed share of the increased allocations should go to the services that matter most to rural households: feeder roads, primary health care, primary schools, water and security in farming communities. Completed projects should be verified independently.
The minimum wage and social protection programmes should be reviewed regularly against the cost of essential goods, so that the poorest do not carry the heaviest share of the reform.
Citizens, civil society, the media and professional bodies should make full use of the Freedom of Information Act 2011, the budget process and, where necessary, the courts to follow public money from allocation to result.
Nigerians have paid for these reforms at the petrol pump, in the market and in what their wages can buy. Government now receives far more than it did before. Those who bore the cost have every right to be shown, project by project, what the money has done.
Who is John T. Ajai ?
A professor in the Department of Science Education, Taraba State University, Jalingo
Note on sources: FAAC figures are compiled from the monthly disbursement reports of the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, June 2023 to July 2026, and summed to the kobo before rounding to four decimal places.
All FAAC figures, national and State, are net receipts after deductions at source: the Federal Government from Table II, the States from Table III (which includes the 13% derivation paid to oil-producing states), and the Local Government Councils from Table IV.
Exact net amounts, June 2023 to July 2026: Federal Government #16,646,112,770,339.45;
States #21,653,719,443,984.87;
Local Government Councils #14,378,841, 142, 183.30; total #52,678,673,356,507.62.
Additional net allocations above the June 2023 level, July 2023 to July 2026:
Federal Government N5,962,025,931,289.07;
States #8,922,896,943,836.37;
Local Government Councils N6,032,503,421,126.88; Total #20,917,426,296,252.32.
Inflation and petrol prices are from the National Bureau of Statistics and NNPC retail prices (9 October 2026); exchange rates from the Central Bank of Nigeria / NFEM; poverty and state expenditure from the World Bank Nigeria Development Updates (April and October 2026); federal uses of resources and subsidy savings from the Federal Ministry of Finance Reform Scorecard (August 2026); US figures from the World Bank, US Department of Labor and AAA.
The full calculations are available from the author.