Taking a cue from Law Mefor’s political thesis
There is a proverb that Law Mefor, philosopher and statesman, reminded us of last week, and it should be printed and pasted on the wall of every opposition secretariat in Nigeria.
“Ijide dike na ani, inataro ya mma, obu mgbe okwuru oto — if you fail to wrestle a machete from a strong man when he is on the ground, you cannot do it when he is standing.”
That is the entire story of 2027. The opposition has got it wrong. Fundamentally, emotionally, historically wrong.
Law Mefor said what every serious student of power knows but what Twitter politicians pretend not to know:
“Nowhere in history has a divided opposition ever upstaged a determined incumbent. It has never happened in Nigeria, and it does not happen in any serious presidential democracy. Yet this scattered opposition believes it can unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu – a man who won even when a sitting president, the Central Bank Governor, and much of the powers-that-be did not want him to win. Now Tinubu is president. He controls the levers of power.”
Let us unpack that truth, because Nigerians deserve emotional truth, not social media noise.
1. THE MAN YOU COULD NOT STOP WHEN HE WAS ON THE GROUND, YOU WANT TO STOP NOW THAT HE IS STANDING?
Think about 2023.
President Buhari did not want Tinubu. He refused to openly campaign for him. He brought Naira redesign three months to election that made Nigerians queue at banks like beggars, all to stop Tinubu. The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, became a de facto opposition candidate, hoarding new naira, disobeying Supreme Court.
The DSS, the EFCC, fuel scarcity, dollar scarcity – everything was weaponized. Atiku was the establishment’s comfortable choice. Obi was the emotional choice of the youth. Kwankwaso held Kano.
And yet, Bola Ahmed Tinubu – with no federal power, no sitting president behind him, no CBN, no military, just a political structure built over 25 years – won. He won in the most hostile environment any candidate has ever contested in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.
Now he is President. He is Commander-in-Chief. He controls the Army, Navy, Air Force, Police, DSS. He controls 28 APC governors, the Senate President, the Speaker. He controls the budget, the appointments, the intelligence. He has laid the hardest economic reforms and survived.
And you – divided, quarreling, jealous of each other – think you will wrestle him now?
My Igbo brothers say it well: If you could not wrestle the strong man when he was sitting on the ground, how will you wrestle him when he is standing with machete in hand, wearing the crown?
The opposition has got it wrong emotionally. They think politics is anger. Politics is structure.
2. A DIVIDED HOUSE CANNOT BRING DOWN A CASTLE
Mefor is historically correct: Nowhere in history has a divided opposition ever defeated a determined incumbent.
Not in Nigeria. Not in America. Not in Ghana. Not in South Africa.
Check:
– In 2019, Atiku had Obi as VP, Kwankwaso was still in PDP, Wike was PDP. They were UNITED. Buhari still defeated them with 15 million votes.
– In 2015, APC defeated Jonathan because the opposition UNITED. Tinubu, Buhari, Atiku, Kwankwaso, Amaechi, Saraki, Dogara – all collapsed into one party. Unity produced victory.
Today, what do we have?
Atiku believes it is his turn. Obi believes it is his divine mandate and his obedient followers will insult anyone who disagrees. Kwankwaso believes Kano is a country and no alliance without him as VP. El-Rufai believes he is the intellectual alternative. Amaechi believes he is still relevant.
They cannot sit in one room for 2 hours without fighting over who will be President, Vice President, Campaign DG.
Yet they believe they can unseat Tinubu?
The man who built a political party that has won Lagos uninterrupted for 26 years, who turned ACN from one state to 6 states, who merged parties into APC, who produced Buhari and Osinbajo and Gbajabiamila – you think your Whatsapp coalition will defeat him?
The opposition has got it wrong strategically. They are running 5 presidential candidates against 1 incumbent. Arithmetic, not emotion, decides elections.
3. THE TWELVE FACTORS THAT PRODUCE A PRESIDENT – AND THE OPPOSITION HAS NONE
Law Mefor is right: There are a dozen factors that actually produce Nigeria’s President. Not tweets. Not Instagram live. Not Arise TV noise.
Let us name them honestly:
a) Structure: Tinubu has APC in all 774 LGAs. Opposition has Twitter handles.
b) Governors: Tinubu has 28 governors who will deliver their states because their own second term depends on him. Opposition governors are decamping to APC every month.
c) Money: Politics costs money. The man who survived when CBN seized cash now controls CBN. Opposition GoFundMe cannot match federal incumbency.
d) Appointments: Over 40,000 federal appointments made by Tinubu in 2 years. Each appointee has 100 people who owe loyalty. That’s 4 million foot soldiers. Opposition appoints media aides.
e) The North: Tinubu lost North in 2023 but kept it close. Now he has paid North back with appointments, security push, agriculture revival, Sokoto-Badagry road. Atiku cannot claim North alone again.
f) The South-West: This is Tinubu’s home. No Yoruba man will abandon his own when he is President, especially with his performance. Opposition has no Yoruba face.
g) Incumbency Power of Forgiveness: Nigerian voters forgive hardship if they see attempt. Buhari had no attempt. Tinubu has removed subsidy, floated naira, and inflation is falling from 30% to 14.6%. Growth at 4.48%. Nigerians are enduring because they see light. Opposition offers only abuse.
h) The Fear Factor: No governor, no contractor, no civil servant wants to fight a President who controls EFCC, ICPC, and knows the secrets of everyone. In 2023, they fought him because he was not President. Now, who will fund opposition against a sitting President who knows where the files are?
i) Presidential Aura: Once you wear that badge “GCFR”, you become father of nation. Even those who hate you respect the office. Campaigning against a sitting President is like campaigning against your own father in village square. You may be right, but village will side with father.
j) Opposition Fatigue: Nigerians have seen Atiku contest since 1993 – 32 years! Same speech. Obi’s 1 term, 1 term. People are tired of recycled anger.
k) Social Media is Not Polling Unit: 1 million likes in Lagos does not produce 1 vote in Kaura Namoda. Tinubu knows polling units. Opposition knows hashtags.
l) God Factor: Mefor didn’t say this, but I will: There is grace. A man who survived Buhari, Emefiele, Naira scarcity, fuel scarcity, DSS – there is a hand upon him. You cannot wrestle grace with gossip.
The opposition has got it wrong spiritually. They think 2027 is 2023. It is not.
4. MY EMOTIONAL PLEA TO THE OPPOSITION: STOP DECEIVING NIGERIAN YOUTHS
This is where I get emotional as Fattykolly.
I love young Nigerians. I am young. I see how opposition leaders come to TikTok, say “Tinubu has failed, we will remove him”, collect money from youth, and go to bed in Maitama mansions.
You know you cannot win divided. You know Atiku will not step down for Obi. You know Obi will not step down for Atiku. You know Kwankwaso will not be VP to anyone. You know you have no governors, no structure, no funding.
Yet you keep telling our brothers “we will unseat Tinubu.” You keep giving them false hope so they insult each other online, so they burn bridges, so they don’t prepare for productive life.
You have got it wrong morally.
If you truly love Nigeria, unite first. Show us ONE candidate. Show us ONE party. Show us ONE manifesto that is different from Tinubu’s Renewed Hope. Show us your own 4.48% growth plan, your own $55bn reserves plan.
You have none. Only “Tinubu must go.” That is not a policy. That is bitterness.
2027 IS DECIDED, BUT HISTORY WILL JUDGE
Law Mefor concluded: “To understand why 2027 is already decided, we must look at the dozen factors that actually produce Nigeria’s president. These factors are more powerful than social media noise.”
He is right.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu won when he had no power. He will win more when he has all power.
The opposition had a chance to wrestle the machete from him when he was on the ground in February 2023. They failed. They will not succeed when he is standing tall in 2027, with the red pen, the sword, the national budget, the 28 governors, and the grace of survival behind him.
Nigerians, don’t waste your emotions on a divided opposition that is already fighting over campaign funds that don’t exist.
Support the man who endured to save the economy. Give him one more term to turn figures to food.
The wrestle is over. The strong man is standing.
