HEAVY MILITARY GUN FIGHTING IN THE STREETS OF KHARTOUM, SUDAN: WHAT LESSONS FOR NIGERIA?
Wishing all Muslims the Blessings of the Eid-al-Fitri….. May the Discipline of the last Fasting Period be a source of Blessing to others, our Neighbors and NIGERIA! Happy Eid-al-Fitri!
By Dr Orefo Nnamdi Onochie
It was, Saturday, April 15, 2023, not surprising, strange or unexpected, that fierce and heavy military gun fights, rocket, artillery, explosions and air strikes, broke the silence of the early morning, night and day, in the streets of Khartoum, Port Sudan, Damazin, Dafur and Mewore, (including other suburban towns), in the Islamic Republic of Sudan. The Sudan Military Forces, SMF, and the Rapid Support Forces, RSF, both groups originating from the government of the Islamic Republic of Sudan, have descended on each other: the SMF calls the RSF a terrorist militia, the RSF calls the SMF leader/Army General a crook. The invaluable gem in the contest, is who will control the government and be in charge of the resources of the country, as President.
BACKGROUND ON DOMINATION AND MONOPOLY OF VIOLENCE
The consistent and recurring issue that has plagued Sudan for more than 50 years has been the Islamic religion and ethnic Arab domination. It began in simmering war in 1955 as a war between Sudanese Arabs in the North, mostly Muslims, and Nuer Nilonic Southerners, mostly Animists and Christians: this first war lasted for 25-years, and indeed never ended in the South. The Arabs plotted to DOMINATE and ISLAMISE the entire country, using the Sudanese Military. In time a second phase of the conflict started in 1983 until 2005. As a result of the interminable and endlessness of the killings of more than 2-million Sudanese, the North accepted the breakup of the country, with the SPLM, Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement led Army, opting for the South Sudan Republic, while the North remained together and became the Islamic Republic of Sudan. Yet the recurring issue of Islam and Arab ethnic domination still encapsulated the North, between the two major ethnic groups, the Arabs, and the Dinka. Both groups, though mostly and 99% Muslims, wish to dominate and even exterminate the other, and the regional basis of the conflict has become the North of the Islamic Republic of Sudan, against the West of the same Islamic Republic. Why is this so?
The two Military and Paramilitary leaders are Mohammed Hamzan Daglo “Hemeti” as Commander of the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and Abdel al Bohan, Head of the Sudan Military Force (SMF). Both are Generals, clearly of the same rank, seniority and visibility. Hemeti was appointed as leader of the Paramilitary to fight the insurgency in Dafur, as a complement of the SMF, and this proviso did not exclude it as part of the SMF, but the gained strength, visibility and fighting prowess of the RSF, having been originated from ousted President Omar al Bashir, is the new challenge of the transition Sudanese political environment. It is a very complex political matrix, that is based on Islam as a religion, and ethnicity as a mode of global human interpretation of reality, that is also peculiar to Sudan. What are the basic goals of both conflictual groups, which started as competitiveness, but has now devolved as an Achilles heel of the Sudan? The daytime shocking tragedy, suffering, more than 300-civilian deaths in five days of fighting, more than 6,000 persons (civilians and soldiers), injured, deprivations of foodstuffs, water, electricity and medical supplies to hospitals for injured civilian thousands, the terror-stricken population and wanton destruction of the physical buildings and infrastructure of Khartoum and other parts of the country, in a spreading civil war reminiscent for most, first is Somalia, then Libya. There is still a pretense from the international community that this is about organizational power tussle, yet it has deeper undertones that are compelling for 3rd World political societies such as Nigeria. This is why it is so much more important for me to engage in more interpretative contextual analysis.
RELIGION OR ETHNICITY AS A BIGOTRY FACTOR
We are already appraised of the hard long war of the Sudan, that lasted in the South of the country, interminably for close to 32-years. In the South, they were mostly Nilotic Negroes, Animists or Christians. After the departure of the British, and the end of British Colonialism, a neo-exploitative structure, crafted by the same British, was emplaced on Sudan, that gave the Nilotic Arabs in the North, a sense that they were “born to Rule” forever, based on the monolithic size of the North, Islam, and yet just less of gruesome Arabism. The military capacity and training of the neo- elite, grafted from the exploits and foibles of Gamel abdel Nasser, in Egypt, who began the military overthrow of Monarchs in Africa, appeared to propel the Arab neighbors further south on the Nile River. By the advent of General Nimeiry as Head of State of Sudan, the Islam factor was no longer a vital parameter in deciding the pathway of the future leaders of country. The base assumption was that in order to lead the country, you needed to be both Arab and Muslim, otherwise woe betide your bones. Surely this was why the war in the South, took so long, at some point the longest waged war in human history: the North became more complacent and corrupt, and the professional soldiers were more interested in wealth, pleasures, than political power. The South saw victory coming, became more bold, and took the war through to asymmetric warfare. Arab Sudanese soldiers who were more interested in wine and women, were attacked at nights, at different, unexpected joints, by a more cruel, determined and oppressed enemy. The West wanted oil in the South of Sudan more than the cotton in the North, but the more tired side was the North: as the war ended in 2005, it took another 6-years for the Muslim North, to become convinced about the futility of co-federating existence with the South, and waved away the South, to an independent Republic of South Sudan. The Arab Sudanese program to ISLAMISE the South failed woefully and shamefully, and the Islamic Republic of Sudan in the North, became an entity that has consistently consumed itself in Constitutional crises, after crises, until Saturday April 15, 2023, when the Military, unexpectedly descended on themselves. The issue is no longer Islam, but ethnicity, because both protagonists are Muslims, and whilst one is Arab Nilotic, the other is Nuer Nilotic: one in the North, the other in the West. As the soldiers who support them sift themselves through the grains of their ethnicity, the zest and hatred against the other side increases to deeper belligerence and taciturnity. Whilst the US, UK, EU and the Gulf States ( Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc), see troubles in the continental heart of Africa, afraid of intervention and meddling by terrorist Islamic bands such as Al Shabbab, the Chinese and Iran, the bloodied pretentious fighters, on both sides of the war, will seek to turn the Islamic Republic of Sudan to Somalia, as a testament to the evils of equating religion and politics as one and the same. The prospects of diplomatic solution to the spreading civil war, is dimming by the day, and a military superiority solution, if still possible, will be that final solution: despite two US, internationally sponsored cease-fires, which hardly holds, Sudan will sooner than later, become another source of global displacement of refugees across Western Europe and North America. This will be a higher price and tragedy for the West, because of the inevitable export of the Islam factor into the Northern hemisphere, a prospect that is yet to confront both the Europeans and the Americans. But this reality will soon become unstoppable and irreversible. Now, who will supply the ammunitions and arms, to extend the new Sudanese war, and to defeat the other side?
It is the Multi National Corporations, of the same West, already established in the Sudan for more than 50-years, reaping huge profits, and incomes that perpetuate the exploitation of the country, (in the event of prolonged war, Russia and China may seek through Iran to influence the final outcome). This is the sudden and new tragedy of Sudan, long in the making. The solution may again be in the dividing of the two sides, into a Republic of Arab Sudan, while the other will become a Republic of Dafur Sudan.
LESSONS FOR NIGERIA FROM # 2023
The greatest advantage of Nigeria, a country of immense continentality and natural resources, is akin to that of Sudan. The oil and gas found in the Southern Nigerian Niger Basin (Anambra, Imo, Abia, Benue, Anioma areas etc) ,and Niger Delta (Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Ijaw, Itshekiri, Urhorobo zones), of Nigeria, have been the same blessings of the Sudan, North/South. In the North of Nigeria, gold, oil and gas, bauxite, tantalite, cassiterite, and uranium, have been found in commercial quantity, as happened in Northern Sudan, that led to the possibility that the Muslim regions became less interested in the continued neo-colonial entrapment, control and seizure of the reins of Presidential power, and accepted to wave the South Sudan away as an independent country, after destroying it through two militaristic wars of more than a quarter century: Boko Haram, Bandits, ISWAP, and Fulani herdsmen started the same destructive wars in the North, and the Middle Belt of Nigeria, while a combination of the Nigerian Military, Security and Police agencies, favoring and protective of marauding Fulani herdsmen, have turned the South East forests and rural communities ( parts of Orlu, Oru East/West, Awommama, Lilu, Ihiala, Isukwu Ato, Okigwe, Enugu, suburbs of Abakaliki etc into near permanent war zones, accused of harboring Biafra irredentism: forests and communities in the South West, have suffered the same (Ondo, Owo, Ibadan-Lagos Expressway, parts of Ogun, Ekiti etc compelling the establishment of Amotekun: in Edo, Benin, Auchi forests, Aginigbode, Ajaokuta zones), have been occupied by Fulani herdsmen, Miyetti Allah, Mobgal Fulbe, Kautal Hore, and Funam, intermittently yet ceaselessly terrorising the local populace, killing, bombing Catholic and burning down Pentecostal Churches, raping local women and kidnapping ordinary peoples and the traveling public.
The second shared irony of Nigeria and the Islamic Republic of Sudan is taciturnity of the Northern elite: see how far President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB), ridiculed his APC in what he signed as RESTRUCTURING Act 2023 – sham provisions on electricity, local government recapitulation by the State governments etc. Zero mention of the reduction of Federal functions, VAT, Resource Control, State Police, fiscal and revenue independence of the State Governments from Abuja monthly allocations, permission of Local governments to exist away from State governments’ control and dominance etc: the more Nigeria is being run into the ground, the farther away the elite of the North show their deep stake and interest; and indeed PMB invested more in Maradi and Zinder, Niger Republic, building new railways and oil/gas pipelines, from monies borrowed from China, by Nigeria, than he invested in the Niger Basin South, or Niger Delta of Nigeria. The simmering insurgency in the South East, including weekly 3-year old, Monday-Sit at – home public disobedience, the deeper aggressiveness and ethnic superiority complex in the South West (epitomized by the profiling of Igbos or those who resemble Igbos, before, during and after the March 18, 2023 Governorship election in Lagos State), and the uneasy hot belly in the Niger Delta, all compare very favorably with the years of the wars of the South Sudan.
Once the Arab Islamic North Sudan found oil/gas in high quantities, it littered the Sudanese South: now ethnicity and not Islam has become their gravest dangers. Will what happened in Sudan, violence, war, oppression, and disintegration happen in Nigeria? What is our best way to learn from these Sudanese lessons?
NIGERIA AFTER MAY 29, 2023: NATIONAL CENSUS OF MAY 2023, WORSE THAN ANY NIGERIA HAS EVER HAD
In addition to the debacle of the General/Presidential Election of 2023, Nigerians have not paid attention to the preparations to count the Nigerian population through a Census, 14-20 days before the end of the Buhari interregnum on May 29, 2023. Despite promises of a technology based election by the Nigerian INEC, which failed, another national calamity appears to be hovering over Nigeria, since the electronic-based 2023 election turned out to be the fastest event that has despoiled Nigeria. Political overheat and tension not withstanding, the Buhari government is bent on going forward to complete the May 2023 population count, and again hurriedly declare the nation’s total population figures, before a new government will be installed (we must recall that the results of the 1963 Census, was the originator and harbinger of the troubles of Western Nigeria, that ended in the infamous “wetie” Petrol dousing and burning of political activists of the Action Group and NNA). The RUGA program, of the current Federal Government, rejected in parts of the Middle Belt, and entirely in the South, for seeking to permanently install Fulani populations in the South (west, east and south-south) is a central plank of the May 2023 National Census. Hard of learning and accepting of wise counsel, unless PMB accomplishes this Fulani super-imposition agenda, the plans to use creeping methods to establish Fulani DOMINATION and ISLAMISATION, will mean that he failed. Are there pitfalls in this population census count of 2023 which will cause a second time in a year, so much suffering and hardships for a pauperized citizenry? Why would a normal government take on two major public projects such a General Election, and national population head count, both within the same period? Has the history of such exercises been simple or easy in Nigeria? How many elections and census counts have been held and cancelled before in Nigeria?
In responding to these questions, and merely based on hindsight of the just concluded 2023 General elections in Nigeria, it is apparent that the current Federal government in Nigeria does not mean well or intend well for the country. The objective is to hurry on and undertake the census and force on the nation another tragedy of results of historic proportions: then ask dissatisfied sections of the country to go to Court. Can practices and policies such as these induce citizens national patriotism? Why must Nigeria be served by such myopic leaders? In the Office of the current Nigerian President and in his Cabinet, are there no persons of impressionable character and stature whose opinions can sway the President? Or is it that this agenda of DOMINATION of the rest of the country, in favor of ethnic Fulani group has been bought by all those who work with the President? How can unity, peace, progress and national cohesion be achieved through muddled up government policies such as these? Except for my warnings of November 2022, against the Naira re-design and exchange policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, see what Nigerians suffered from December 2022 – March 2023? How can a polity such as this survive, with so much suffering for the citizenry, and IMPUNITY of the government?
The most tragic and shameful irony is that the political party in power still pretends and claims that it is still winning in all elections? Are Nigerians so mind-bent to still vote such a group victorious at free, fair and secret elections?
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF SUDAN IS GOING….GOING GONE…… WHAT MUST NIGERIA DO AFTER 29 MAY 2023 NOT TO SLIDE DOWN THE SAME PATHWAY?
You do not need a Ph.D in Futurology (Science of Reading the Future), to know that our Republic is already reeling in readiness for public disobedience and social anarchy, after the Presidential and Governorship elections of February and March 2023. Can this be what we wish Nigeria in this century, to deliberately destroy everything we have built in more than 50-years of toil and work? Can this be the legacy that we want our children to be endowed with? An elite of politics, business and religion, so wantonly greedy, selfish, and self-centered that unless it is our personal ambitions, our ethnic group, our religion or “my turn”, all other considerations must be put aside? Is it difficult to see that there are other political entities, such as Switzerland, where honest, fair, just and equitable planning and consideration secures a very peaceful and prosperous society? After the highly disputed elections of 1983, Chief Obafemi Awolowo retired securedly to Ikene, and watched Nigeria zig it’s way, from one clear tragedy to another, until he passed…… then to our millions, he became the Best President Nigeria Never Had. Few Nigerians, or our history can fault him with bad character or conduct, except those who were his political competitors. How are the mighty fallen? When Chinua Achebe rejected the high honors of our land, bestowed on him by Government, saying he had nothing to be proud of, can anyone of these frugal yet humble earlier leaders of this land imagine where and what direction NIGERIA is headed today? But as history has always shown us, God knows when to deliver NIGERIA from our perils.
That redemption, immediately after May 29, 2023, must come like this:
1. Call up an URGENT 7-day Conference of ethnic indigenous leaders of Nigeria, to adopt the Reform Conference Agenda submitted to Goodluck Jonathan in 2014, modified to a not-so-costly Parliamentary System, in which no one needs to be a Billionaire to become Prime Minister: the Minority party or (parties) in Parliament will by their caucus elect a Ceremonial President for Nigeria, so it will not be a winner-take-all, even losers will have a very patriotic stake. The engine-house of development and prosperity will revert to the States and Local Governments, with a highly reduced Exclusive Functions for the center government.
2. Federal center to build 7-new multi-mode Electricity generation plants, paid for upfront, and guaranteed by international Insurers, to be delivered in 24-months, to revive industrial economics and increase local employment, mandating and encouraging all Nigerians to buy Nigerian made goods.
3. RoundTable Nigerian business and Industrial Captains, to a Programme of Price reductions on all products and in all sectors by initial 32%, to gradually reduce suffering in the country, and arrest perpetual rising cost of living.
4. Provide all Nigerians FREE EDUCATION up to University level, and FREE MEDICAL HEALTH SERVICES and reap the future benefits of a highly IT trained, and healthy population.
5. Further fight rising inflation by reducing the price of Petrol to N75.00 per liter, protect Petrol subsidy, and encourage local production of petrol through indigenous technology, and supplementation by massive refineries such as NNPC and Dangote.
6. Peg the exchange rate of the Naira-US Dollar at N92.00 to $1.00 USD, criminalize CBN/Deposit Banks programmed and scheduled devaluation of the Naira, and fund solely, raw materials imports or invisible payments such as Airline incomes in Nigeria.
7. ZERO CORRUPTION AND ZERO FOREIGN LOANS: 92.3% of Nigeria’s 2023 revenue will be used to service our external loans in 2023. Why borrow more, but rather re-schedule your repayments, and rely on your earned revenue? Expand the Nigerian Bench, and Magistracies in Nigeria, and limit the duration of all Court trials to 3-7 months maximum, while Judges and Magistrates can only be saddled with only 300-Case Files per annum. Remove executive immunity from the Constitution so that any criminal acts, even while in Office, by both the executive and legislature can be tried; also all executive and legislative tenures of elected persons should be 6-years, with a holiday of 7-years, before another final tenure of 6-years can be permitted, and do away with incumbency advantages that lead to rigging and violence during elections.
LAWS AND POLICIES THAT MUST PRESERVE NIGERIA
All the high hopes of Nigerians in the 2015 election of PMB were dashed with his lackluster performance as President. Nigeria has never been as divided, pauperized and violated, as they were during the Presidential tenures of PMB. Even the much advertised anti corruption personality that made him sai baba has long vaporized with constant and many wrong policies and mal-administration. Corruption, bribery, greed and lack of consideration for the feelings of others, has overtaken our society. When leaders fail to condemn and lead publicly exemplary lives, it rubs off wrongly on the rest of society. Has Nigeria moved in a more disciplined and humane direction since 2011? Yar’Adua saw Nigerians as a people he had divine responsibility to care for, and he even reduced the price of petrol …… not those who have been planning to remove petrol subsidy, and jack up the price to N800.00 per liter (what will be the cost of living in Nigeria, if and when we go that?). Yar’Adua urged Niger Delta Militants to move back out into the society and granted them AMNESTY. Since that epoch, wickedness and suffering has been the lot of ordinary Nigerians…… yahoo yahoo, kidnapping for ransom, including butchering and selling human body parts, separatism.
Government policies must return to humanism in order to cohere, unify and stop the public bleeding that throws up social violence. The cost of living is still too high, and the business, political and government elite live a life very dramatically different from much of society. It is the responsibility of government to cushion the suffering of the populace.
CONCLUSION
Having started from the current violent military course of events in Sudan, it is appropriate and imperative to note that the persistent slippery downward slide of the standard and quality of the average Sudanese citizen’s life, brought on the current ruthless ethnic struggle for control of the reins of political power in the country. In Nigeria we have traversed the same path already: we cannot allow our slide to go in their direction. That is the appropriate lesson to learn from where they are. Our citizens and leaders must take a cue from the Sudan, and heal our country.
Signed:
Dr Orefo Nnamdi Onochie
Convener/Chairman NACOPPIN NIGERIA 2023
