Count Down to 2023 Transition: Four Days to Go,Final Legacy of Buhari to Nigeria
By Dr Orefo Onochie
1. $800 MILLION US DOLLARS LOAN (N4.86 TRILLION NAIRA LOAN) 7-DAYS TO END OF TENURE
2. N21 BILLION NAIRA ASO ROCK HOSPITAL-TO STOP PRESIDENTIAL MEDICAL TRIPS TO EUROPE
3. PORT-HARCOURT REFINERY TO BE READY END OF 2023-DANGOTE REFINERY AND THE NIGERIAN OIL INDUSTRY/ECONOMY
4. FOR THE RECORDS: NACOPPIN NIGERIA 2023 SIGNAGE SUPPORTING THE PETER OBI-AHMED DATTI PRESIDENTIAL TICKET, IN ASABA, DELTA STATE, NIGERIA, REMOVED BY UNKNOWN PERSONS ON MAY 24, 2023
The Republic of Ghana, our closest English speaking neighbour has a date with history and destiny on December 7, 2024, when their General Elections, including the Presidential one will hold: the incumbent President in Accra, recited a poetic-deceptive-eulogy to his counterpart in Nigeria whose tenure ends in 7-days, “history will be kind to you”. Surely, President Nana Dankwa Akufo-Addo is unaware that more than 80,000 Nigerians have died in the hands of kidnappers, Islamic insurgents (Boko Haram, ISWAP, Fulani herdsmen), and Unknown Gunmen, from 2015 to 2023, that this current Nigerian Presidential tenure ends. The current Nigerian 2-time President/Head of State, who ought to be a Soldier-Statesman Diplomat of the highest pedigree, a one-time National Patron and Negotiator of Boko Haram, leaves office in 4-days, and the Boko Haram Islamic Jihad they are alleged to have assisted in originating is still aflame in several sectors of Northern Nigeria, a consistent enemy and plague of the Nigerian Military, and there is no hope of secured peace and development in these areas: rural and urban local communities within Nigeria who pay taxes to insurgents/terrorists, road and rail travelers, educational institutions, primary schools, colleges, universities, boarding schools, especially female institutions, Christian Churches and Muslim Mosques, are all preys of easy kidnapping and poaching by these religious fanatics, power and money hungry marauders. How can history be kind to President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB)? So aloof, disinterested and consistently unseen, unheard of and at every available opportunity seeking medical treatment in better hospitals in the UK: how can Nigerians (or history) whose current CPI, the cost of living index, is at 22.4%, as quoted same day Nana Akufo Addo was deceiving PMB, how can anyone be kind to Buhari? Ravaged by skyrocketing periodic inflation since 2015, by a Presidential induced recession that lasted till 2018, uncontrolled publicly revealed official CORRUPTION, bribery, political arrogance, ethnic tribal impunity, legalistic-judicial rascality, and at the 11th hour, electoral crimes and riggings, mindless public suffering and torture of Nigerians (Naira redesign and change of color, scarcity and inflated price of petrol), the types of which Nigerians never suffered before: even if history mistakenly got kind to PMB, which is utterly unthinkable, will Nigerians FORGIVE him, his Party, the APC, and its hoard of lawless followers and leaders? The public answer must be in the NEGATIVE, which is why the future of Nigeria has become so uncertain. In the year 2022, three Governments and Prime Ministers in the UK were dumped, disgraced out of office and voted out by their political party Parliamentary Caucus, because the rate of inflation rose from 9% to 14%; in Nigeria the rate of inflation in the same 2022, rose by more than 35%, yet the elections have been rigged in favor of the APC, how can a structure like Nigeria be prosperous, stable and peaceful? It is possible to fool a people sometimes but you cannot FOOL them all the time. As this interregnum terminates, Nigeria is being fitted into an explosive tinder box, such as the tragic October 20, 2020, #END SARS upheaval in Southern Nigeria, the starting of which could not be predicted by the zillions of Christian religious predictors and false prophets, or their Muslim equivalents better known as marabouts, who deceive the political leaders in Nigeria and they mis-govern the country. Nigerians will still hold all of them accountable, and history will be most unkind to them, for fretting away golden opportunities, and resources of the country, into their private pockets and only to themselves and their families and friends. The date when each will be held accountable: in the not so distant future, because a people will always get the government they deserve.
a. BUHARI’s FINAL DEPARTING LEGACY TO NIGERIA
At first it appeared unreal that a lame-duck government, scheduled to exit in 10-days, was requesting for National Assembly approval to borrow from foreign sources, the whooping sum of $800 Million US Dollars (based on today’s exchange rate of N760.00 to $1.00 USD, the sum is equivalent to N4.86 Trillion Naira, more than one fifth of Nigeria’s 2023 Annual Budget of N21.83 Trillion Naira; what will the PMB Government do at this stage of its tenure, with such gargantuan sum of un-budgeted sum of money, and why should such loan be granted it so fast and easy by the National Assembly?
Almost at once, it was stated that the new incoming government will spend the loan money, so did such an incoming, still unknown government request also for the same $800 Million Dollar loan?): as at March 22, 2023 the public debt of Nigeria stood at N46.2 Trillion Naira, an increase of 23.2% from last year. Per capita, it is a very heavy burden on the ability of the government to defend our sovereign rights as a people. When competing, negotiating or contending with other governments on foreign policy issues, or monetary concerns such as debts and trading credits, with other national entities, this backlog of debt will continue to compromise our national policies, and positions. Indeed, from the conservative income of Nigeria, excluding reckless policies of the government, and serving Ministers, development policies of Nigeria can be pursued vigorously as planned without further external loans or borrowing. What are the quantifiable public dividends of these external loans? Can these be listed and has government been listing them to justify to the populace, the rationale for seeking such new loans?
Hardly do the repayment conditions get revealed publicly and the reasons are because they are usually stiff, and not in the country’s best interest. Why has Government not revealed what this new foreign loan will be used for? As a final departing legacy, this $800 Million Dollar loan taken by PMB less than a week to the end of the tenure of the government is reckless, myopic and self-serving: it is a disservice to the country and its people.
2. N21 BILLION NAIRA ASO ROCK HOSPITAL-TO STOP PRESIDENTIAL MEDICAL TRIPS TO EUROPE
The problems of PMB with the Nigerian public started with the hiding of his medical health history and conditions. To endear a leader to his people, all aspects of his private life when made known to the people brings that leader closer to his people. Sympathies will be accorded that leader that is human and wise to take those who follow her/him into confidence. Indeed, health facilities in Nigeria if well upgraded will still not be confused even as PMB, continues to hide his health conditions from the public, that it is the Nigerian public that pays his health bills: even as the same public do not know what ailments or medical services they are paying for.
It is not merely the fact that PMB jets off, or ducks, to London from all his foreign trips, rather than use an Aso Rock medical facility. Indeed, that is not the issue. Seven days to the end of the Government, N21 Billion Naira will be “spent to stop Presidents from taking medical trips abroad “. Assuming future Presidents chose otherwise? Would such a facility be solely used by the President, excluding those who work in the Presidency and their wards or families? The N21 Billion hospital statement credited to the Wife of the President was an admission of a lack of trust and confidence in the medical manifest of both the President and all those around him. It necessarily did not have to be so, except for the fact that it again brings us back to the final legacy of PMB.
Far into the first tenure of PMB, his detractors began to spread information that a clone of a Sudanese person, called Jibrin had incarnated into Buhari. The extent and public belief of the saga was because of the hiding of the health status of the elected elderly man. Expressing surprise and disappointment at the rumors himself, PMB IS showed that the rumors was hurtful to him as a person, and ungrateful to him as a serving President. Yet it emanated from his carefree attitude towards the population that elected him: more importantly, it was a testimony that a people will always get the type of leaders they deserve or want. Nigerians suffered same fate, at the hideous handling of the health status of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Thus that episode alone ought to have been the appropriate lesson for all the leaders of Nigeria especially those who rise to be President. But it has started again, post the 2015-2023 Buhari tenures. Hideous political habits, very inevitable in politics, no matter the clime, but the Nigerian genre, nay the African, is most unbecoming. Reliance on foreign medical tourism robs the countries of robust health policies and facilities, and jetting off to uncertain overseas hospitals from where they may never return, serves multiple purposes that are far from advantageous politically. Where shall this new 2023 Nigerian Presidential tenure leave Nigeria? Only the truth will come from the future.
3. PORT-HARCOURT REFINERY TO BE READY END OF 2023-DANGOTE REFINERY AND THE NIGERIAN OIL INDUSTRY/ECONOMY
Less than ten days to the tenure of PMB, the incumbent NNPC Group Managing Director, foremost income earner of Nigeria, Mallam Mele Kyari, announced that the Port Harcourt Refinery would be ready for production by the end of 2023.
Propaganda: the same Group MD, Kyari, had less than 8-months ago promised Nigerians that the Refineries would be producing petroleum products before the end of 2022, and it was simply for Presidential election purposes that those statements were made. Now the elections are over, and PMB’s tenure will end in 4-days, the date for the commencement of production from the refinery has been moved to the end of 2023. Yet millions of US Dollars have been allocated to the resuscitation of the refining facility. Beyond the calculus of politics, there is a high denomination of the effects of non functionality of the refineries on Nigeria. All the PMS, premium motor spirit, used in driving more than 12 million cars on NIGERIAN roads, are totally imported. The full cost of importation of PMS alone in 2022-2023 is more than the annual fiscal budget of the country for 2023. As such, statements credited to Mele Kyari in this respect is a heavy one which ought not to be speculative. Such a statement should not be made to favor the government in power, at the detriment of the rest of the society.
DANGOTE REFINERY VS. NNPC REFINERIES
In light of the scheduled commissioning of the 650,000 MT Dangote Refinery in Lekki, Lagos, on May 23, 2023, with the attendant fanfare, yet a very competitive superior alternative to both the income earning capacity and importance of the NNPC as the highest income earner of Nigeria, a position not contested by any other sector or singular facility, apart from the NPA, the Nigeria Ports Authority. Was the date of resuscitation and resumption of the PH Refineries given earlier, by Mele Kyari, just to dilute the effect of the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, assuming that it was the case, what was the expected impact? At resumption would the PH facilities provide the same quantity of refined petrol? Or would a combination of both the quantities from both refineries solve the import requirements of Nigeria?
In the course of the construction and the government subsidized dollar funding of the Dangote Refinery for upwards of more than five years, no consideration had ever been made to the effect that the Dangote Refinery would enable Nigeria to exit from importing PMS. While all other users of Treasury Dollars were compelled to purchase forex in the competitive open market or black market, Dangote was favored, getting steady forex supply from the CBN, Central Bank of Nigeria, ranging from the initial price of N262.00 to $1.00 and it never exceeded N365.00 per Dollar, while the competitive open market rates rose at some point to N760.00 per USD. The clearly stated goal was to create another avenue for very high income for the government, once the project came on stream. Since Dangote is privately owned by Aliko Dangote, the Corporation was not obligated to guarantee that it’s products would serve the dual purpose of higher tax revenue for Nigeria, neither is there a mandatory provision to prevent the exploitation of Nigeria through business made decisions to sell PMS to the highest bidders, who indeed contributed zero to the building of the facility. Two days since the commissioning, it has been revealed that zero PMS quantity will be supplied to the Nigerian market until after August 2023: the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele has announced how Dangote will sell forex to Money Deposit Banks, and also reduce the price of petrol in Nigeria. What is the effect of all this in government policy-makers circle? Why effect the commissioning before PMB leaves office on May 29, 2023? If the production and fuel supply turn-key is still put-off until after August 2023, then would it have made sense to begin both production and final payment on the product facility? Amidst speculation that 5-African Presidents would join PMB to commission the facility. Yet the host country would be supplied for domestic consumption in August 2023, why not wait to the date of supply capacitation, to commission the Refinery. The question becomes why not wait till August to open and begin work and not to disparage or discredit Dangote Refinery? But everything must be done to give credit to PMB, even when Nigerians have zero benefit.
From the experience of the near equivalent concessions to Dangote Cement since 2009, on the condition that the price of a bag of 100-kg cement would not exceed N1,000.00, the price and quantity of cement has risen now to about N5,000.00 per smaller quantity altered bags. The reputation of the Dangote Conglomerate has been fully battered and castrated both in Nigeria and other West African countries and governments. Will the same be the case with the Dangote Refinery, in a more sacred pursuit of the Dangote business income goal, rather than the cost and supply advantages of the local Nigerian consumer and economy. We hope that faith in and gratitude to Nigeria will be preserved and upheld. Our prognosis is the opposite. In August 2023, both PMB and Emefiele will no longer be in positions of authority, and the latter is speculatively said to be planning to leave the country soonest.
BUHARI:
DANGOTE REFINERY AND FUEL SUBSIDY
Surely the most critical and frightening policy decision making process in Nigeria now, revolves around petrol and allied subsidy regimes that will gravely impact economic conditions in the country. At the last count, Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed, Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, informed Nigerians that the N6.7 Trillion Naira Petrol subsidy in 2023, will now be entrusted to a new incoming Federal government to deal with. What is the fuel subsidy?
It is the total amount of money spent by government to equalize or stabilise the cost of any product. It is not a phenomenon special or peculiar to Nigeria, and depending on economic character, a country’s subsidy could be on cassava, bread, milk, tea, petrol or gas; in some countries it could be housing, at other times and places it can be education.Thus, whatever could be of the topmost importance to a specific country would fall under its subsidy regime. In some countries there may be more than two or even three products. In the case of Nigeria, petrol is the first and highest, just as it is fish and agricultural products for countries in Western Europe such as France, Belgium and even the UK and the Republic of Ireland, because every effort is made by their governments to ensure price stability, consistent efforts to reduce inflation, and not to increase social hardship against the populace. Each country must exercise its sovereign authority to determine, guide and fund its subsidies.
In the case of Nigeria, our toughest subsidy is petrol, for the reasonable fact that Nigeria is a continental country with wide distances for traveling, systemic failures in low cost production of petrol, failure to maintain local refineries and corruption in the petroleum value chain. Of the N6.7Trillion subsidy cost, close to 55% are embedded in the sector’s corruption platform, whilst the remaining percentage constitute actual costs, which can still be reduced further. It is in this respect that the bloated debt profile of Nigeria acts as a disincentive on which foreign lenders of funds to Nigeria continue to manipulate the leaders of the country and push her economy into higher and harder dependencies. More conditions that debase the populace and economy are added. Again, it is notable that in 2015, as Buhari became President, Tony Blair, former UK Prime Minister paid early visits to urge him to redact and retract the economy, which landed Nigeria in the recessions that lasted till 2018 first quarter. Ironically in 2023, Tony Blair is visiting again, and judging from the current subsidy and foreign debt profiles of the country, Tony Blair will again in 2023 counsel harsh retraction policies that will ensure dislocations that are clearly avoidable, which include removal of petrol subsidy. If public treasury funds of Nigeria were used to finance the Dangote Refinery, why will local supplies from the facility not be used to offset and stabilize the expenditure on public cost of petrol?
Assuming that the threats of removing petrol subsidy comes into force, from June-July 2023, and petrol per liter cost becomes N400.00 per liter, what would be the impact of this new pump price of petrol on other prices, closely related to transport, food supplies, and factory products of daily use? The skyrocketing inflation of prices will be greater than the subsidy on petrol. This is the rational that ensures that the US subsidy on wheat ensures stable income for wheat farmers, and low cost of baked bread, and other confectionaries including animal feed allied to this value chain. Unless leaders of Nigeria recognize and plot the development of the economy of the country along these national priorities; growth, development and economic prosperity will continue to evade the country. Perhaps this is the legacy that Buhari must leave for Nigerians.
4. FOR THE RECORDS: REMOVAL OF NACOPPIN SIGNAGE SUPPORTING THE 2023 PETER OBI-AHMED DATTI PRESIDENTIAL TICKET, IN ASABA, DELTA STATE, NIGERIA; SIGNAGE REMOVED BY UNKNOWN PERSONS ON MAY 24, 2023
Is it a sign of the direction of how , where and what the future holds for Nigerians? On May 24, 2023, it was discovered that the NACOPPIN 2023 signage containing the photograph of the Peter Obi & Datti Ahmed, Presidential ticket, had been removed and stolen by unknown persons. The signage was posted on the frontal wall of the NACOPPIN NIGERIA 2023 Convention Suites of the Convener/Chairman, in Asaba, Delta State, NIGERIA, since February 10, 2023, when the NACOPPIN Alliance was formed. The signage has been a consistent statement of the direction and stand of NACOPPIN on the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria: that our support is for a 2023 President of Southern Nigeria/Christian faith of Igbo (West or East of the River Niger) extraction, and a Northern Muslim Vice Presidential ticket, which would serve as a balance of equity, fairness and justice, and a beacon of unity, amity, brotherhood and the indivisibility of Nigeria. A country founded on the Rule of Law, in which the Constitution guarantees freedoms of speech, residence and occupation in any part of Nigeria, for all citizens; and the practice of politics, religion and association based on their personal choice(s). These inalienable positions and rights serve as a bond of eternal fraternity, torch of continuous development and prosperity of the country.
Why would anyone purposefully remove the NACOPPIN NIGERIA 2023 signage, and what impression or direction is such a violation pointing towards? Is it the dark days of political divisions, suppression, oppression, ethnic and religious hatred and divides that will further exacerbate the legacy of hatred and disunity of the country, based on events and policies of the APC Government since 2015 up till the end of this 2023 tenure? All the efforts and physical development of Nigeria in the past 80-years, will be put to heavy, unnecessary and avoidable risks should Nigeria proceed in the near and foreseeable future along these disuniting pathway. Constitutional restructuring and devolution of Nigeria is still a sine qua non, and guarantee for the continuing development, unity and prosperity of all our people: time is no longer on our side, and a short, forward-looking program should be commenced post this transition period, which is only 4-days away. We must not be deceived by the euphoria of the moment!
Signed:
Dr Orefo Nnamdi Onochie
Convener/Chairman NACOPPIN NIGERIA 2023
