2023: CRISES IN THE PDP-IYORCHIA AYU, VILLIAN OR VICTIM
By Dr. Orefo Nnamdi Onochie
When Seyi Makinde, Governor of Oyo State, told Atiku Abubakar in Ibadan, that Iyorchia Ayu, must resign as PDP National Chairman, the hand writing on the wall became immediately clear: chances of fence mending, which failed in London only a forth night ago, had failed too in Ibadan. It further reduced by more than a quarter, chances of electoral 2023 Presidential victory for the PDP. Atiku’s sins against the South, by his forcing himself, with the connivance of some Northerners, on the PDP and Nigerians, would be paid for by a pound of flesh. Questions: who should resign, the first to come, or the last, Ayu or Atiku? who is the villain in all this, and who is the victim, Ayu or Atiku?
ATIKU’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE PDP AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE PARTY’S CONSTITUTION
The reason offered by Atiku Abubakar on the difficulties of Iyorchia Ayu resigning, was constitutional restraints. He also added that the PDP is law-abiding, claiming further that he Atiku Abubakar had always been a member of the PDP since 1998. FALSE: were there no constitutional restraints when Iyorchia Ayu was foist on the PDP as a Northerner, to enable Atiku Abubakar, (and his cohort), another Northerner, to win the 2023 Presidential primaries in violation of the PDP 1998 Constitution, Article 7.2.c on the sanctity of Zoning and Rotation of major offices, such as the National Chairman and the Presidential Candidate?
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On Atiku’s consistency as a member of the PDP, it is his personal record, and a public fact, that he resigned his PDP membership twice, to run for President and joined other political parties. It is politically dishonest and disingenuous for Atiku to be credited with the statements issued on his behalf in Ibadan, on the current status of Iyorchia Ayu, and the falling apart of the PDP four and half months to Presidential election day on Saturday, February 25, 2023.
Can Nigerians trust a Presidential Candidate who is dishonest about his party’s Constitution? Indeed, Atiku Abubakar raised the issue of trust of the populace if the PDP Constitution is violated by Makinde’s (and Nyesom Wike’s, as well?), insistence that Ayu must resign. Will the public trust Atiku and the PDP for violating Article 7.2.c of its Constitution when Atiku and other Northerners only relied on that provision to run for President in 2019? Can a Presidential Candidate who keeps changing and shuttling to other political parties, to ensure he satisfies his personal ambitions to be president, be trusted by the populace? A party member who returns to the political party he abandoned when he was denied the pursuit of a Presidential ambition and ran to a new party: should the abandoned political party and the populace trust such a political philanderer?
TRUST OF ATIKU AND VOTING PATTERNS OF 2023 BY THE ZONES
Nigerians must be deceived all the time, if they trust Atiku and the PDP. My prediction after April 14, 2022, when as a disaffected 2023 Presidential Aspirant, I withdrew my 23 years membership of the PDP and joined the PRP, on account of the violation of the same Article 7.2.c, was that the APC, was first to crumble. That party is currently in disarray, but the PDP is the one now heading full speed into eventual scatter and electoral defeat in the 2023 presidential election. Here is the voting math and equation: the North will not vote in totality for any one political party, it will vote for several political parties; the long abandoned, rejected and disillusioned South east will vote for neither the PDP or APC in the Presidential election, it may probably vote along ethnic lines; the South south will divide its votes amongst as many political parties as feasible, surely not the PDP or APC alone; the South west calling now for Ayu’s departure and resignation, knowing that the North wishes to dominate the rest of the country, will hurt the PDP by not voting for its presidential candidate, and will also divide its votes amongst as many political parties as feasible.
Based on hindsight and profundity, we must accept that it is nearly always impossible to predict the future, but attempts can be made, in very tricky and saline situations such as Nigeria has found itself.
DID THE PDP MURDER SLEEP?
What again, and exactly, did the PDP do that brought it to its current crumbling standing and disarray? Despite attempts to mend and repair its dislocations, first in London last forth night, then in Ibadan three days ago, why is the PDP still unable to repair itself? The PDP Chairman of the Board of Trustees, BOT, Walid Jibrin, has resigned, stating that “it was to ensure Presidential election victory for Atiku Abubakar, and the PDP, in general”.
Another political lie, inexactitude, and act of insidiousness. How would the resignation of an advisory Chairman of a BOT enable presidential victory for a candidate? Is it not more a signal of the chaos, disunity and crumbling of the political party that its BOT is pressured to resign four and half months to Presidential Election Day? The hurried installation, the hesitant acceptance of Adolphos Wabara as a replacement BOT Chairman, and the immediate wide rejection of Wabara in the PDP South east constituency, has it resolved the injustices of the 2023 Presidential ticket of the PDP? This again is the clear evidence that the party has murdered sleep, in its illegal jettisoning of Article 7.2.c of its Constitution: allowing Atiku and other Northerners who were the only Presidential Aspirants in 2019, to contest the same office in 2023: it was an illegality. Why has it not been litigated?
SOUTHERN NIGERIA PDP vs. PDP, ATIKU ABUBAKAR & ors
The customary political litigation route in Nigeria usually would have younger stakeholder politicians to litigate against injustices of political parties. Since the jettisoning of Article 7.2.c by the PDP that illegality has not been challenged in a Court of Law. This particular failure has inspired further ruinous actions by those who rejected and jettisoned Article 7.2.c in 2022. That is the SLEEP the PDP has murdered. The resignation of Walid Jibrin, in addition to even the same concession from Iyorchia Ayu will not repair the PDP.
Despite clear warnings prior the dishonest installation of Iyorchia Ayu as PDP Chairman, including his public commitment that he would resign should a Northerner emerge as Presidential Candidate, Atiku and his cohorts went ahead to install him as PDP National Chairman. Ayu has now become a milestone tied to their neck, and together the PDP will sink with them. When in 2011, Goodluck Jonathan was FRESH AIR, even the Northerners were flexible, supported him and the PDP retained the Presidency. In 2015 when he refused to yield to the North, which was illegal jettisoning of Article 7.2.c, and those of us who wrote and spoke up were called names (including Tony Anenih, BOT Chairman then), PDP Northern Nigeria conspired with the South west and defeated and shamed Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP. Is there a deja vu in all this currently playing out?
NYESOM WIKE, SEYI MAKINDE AS THE CONSCIENCE OF THE PDP SOUTHERN NIGERIA
Immediately after the PDP National Convention of May 30, 2022, from which Atiku Abubakar emerged 2023 Presidential Candidate, Iyorchia Ayu congratulated Aminu Tambuwal “as the hero of the Convention”. Did it not immediately strike Ayu, as PDP National Chairman that they had stacked hard odds against him? If not, what would be the consequences of their public commitment that he Ayu would resign if a Northerner emerged as Presidential candidate? That is where the conscience of the PDP is currently domiciled, perhaps in Makinde, Wike or some other un-sung lesser PDP politician. Is there an explanation by Wike as runner up at the 2023 PDP National Convention, and the illegality of jettisoning Article 7.2.c, why he has rejected litigating Atiku and the PDP as a Party with respect to that? You must first preserve your political party Constitution, as a party member, then you will protect the Nigerian Constitution: that charity begins at your home base, which is your political party.
VILLIAN OR VICTIM?
To assert and insist that Iyorchia Ayu must resign as National Chairman of the PDP, is a determination and declaration that he did something wrong. But we also tracked, analysed and came to the conclusion that what wrong in the PDP was based on connivance and conspiracy of politicians, more in the North, than in the South. All the delegates to the PDP Convention where Atiku Abubakar emerged 2023 Presidential Candidate attested to massive efforts and payments made to them, in Naira and US Dollars, to cast votes in favour of several Aspirants.
The highest bidders received the highest number of votes: a moneycracy, rather than a democracy. Thus if there were prior all political parties Southern insistence that the Presidency in 2023 must move to the South, which indeed were reiterated and re-emphasised at the Government Houses in Asaba and Lagos, yet Southern delegates received payments and voted for Northerners.
Then culpability for wrongdoing must be borne by all who were delegates. In that case Ayu can be exonerated. But in the initial instance of the rejection of Zoning and Rotation, Ayu as National Chairman must accept total responsibility. He indeed was a very deceitful villain, and must be held responsible for the tragedy the errors of 2023 will bring to NIGERIA. Just as Goodluck Jonathan is very widely blamed for the 2015 defeat of the PDP, and our national travails since that date, through the misrule of PMB and the APC that has ruined our economy, brought on high rocketing inflation, increased chaos in electricity supply, fears of Northern domination and Islamization, and insecurity that has led to the loss of several local governments, in the Northeast and Northwest, to Bandits, Boko Haram and ISWAP.
Ayu must be hanging on to current his position, on claims that he actually is the VICTIM. Even the Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, failed to hold off Atiku & co. from installing Ayu. So the claim that Ayu was unable to protect himself made him a victim. Yet this position cannot stand long scrutiny, because it will in the end hurt Nigeria, because it increased political recklessness in the North, and removed equity, fairness and justice from the lexicon of politics for 2023. Now the North is fighting to save itself from the perception and accusation that it wishes to dominate the rest of the country. Our position is that both Ayu and Atiku Abubakar are political villains, who history, youths, and the very younger generations will be very unkind to.
Our earnest prayers still remains that God in his infinite Mercy will redeem Nigeria, in this period, as he always does, from the current ugly clouds, and a wise coalition of the lesser political parties will unite to win the 2023 Presidential election, and save the country from our current slip into uncharted political waters: Nigeria would then be returned to Parliamentary Government, instead of the moneycracy of the current Presidential system. The future is full of hope for the young, and they must work to install it.
Signed:
Dr. Orefo Nnamdi Onochie
2023 PDP-PRP Presidential Aspirant
Ebube Dike Ji Ofor Ahaba & NIGERIA
FOR: ONOCHIE POLITICAL ACTION CONFERENCE (ONOPAC)
