Almost half of German manufacturing firms fear the risks posed to their operations if Donald Trump wins the US election on November 5, according to a survey from the country’s ifo Institute released on Wednesday.
The survey revealed that 44 per cent of companies expressed concerns about negative impacts resulting from a second Trump presidency, while 5 per cent are hoping for positive effects. Fifty-one per cent expect no difference whether Trump or his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, wins.
“Companies with close economic ties to the USA in particular are expecting negative consequences if Trump wins the election,” said ifo expert Andreas Baur.
He noted that many companies without direct export relationships to the US are also concerned about the ramifications, as they can still be indirectly affected given the intertwined nature of supply chains.
Only a small proportion of the roughly 2,000 companies surveyed are planning to make adjustments to their operations.
Only 4 per cent are considering, for example, a greater shift of production to the US or changes to supply chains. Eighty-three per cent have no such plans and the rest are unsure.
Trump, the Republican candidate, has promised to implement across-the-board tariffs of 10 per cent or 20 per cent on imports into the United States.
Such a scenario would create chaos for Germany’s manufacturing-heavy, export-driven economy. Baur said a study suggested that German exports to the US could decrease by 15 per cent.
Around 40% of the companies surveyed said the US market was important to their bottom lines.
