As Nigeria grapples with worsening economic conditions, public policy expert and political analyst Bolaji O. Akinyemi has raised alarm over what he calls a “failing economic gamble” under Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso, warning that misguided monetary policies and cabinet indecision could undermine President Bola Tinubu’s political future.
In a strongly worded essay made available to the press, Akinyemi described the Central Bank’s recent decisions as “a brake pad on the wheel of national productivity,” calling on the President to initiate a cabinet reshuffle by October 1st to realign governance with public expectations and economic realities.
“This economy is not working, and its current stewards are part of the problem,” Akinyemi stated. “Monetary policy has become a burden rather than a buffer.”
On ‘Brazilian model as unfit for Nigeria, Akinyemi was particularly critical of Cardoso’s economic inspiration, suggesting that Nigeria is wrongly borrowing from Brazil’s inflation-targeting model without considering the country’s fragile fiscal realities.
“Cardoso is reportedly enamoured with Brazil’s economic structure,” he noted, “but you cannot prescribe Brazil’s aspirin to Nigeria’s cancer. Brazil has over $300 billion in reserves and more stable institutions. We don’t.”
Citing the Central Bank’s recent decision to raise intervention lending rates for development finance institutions such as the Bank of Industry (BOI) from 9% to 15%, he argued that the policy is detrimental to industrial growth and job creation.
“At a time when over 40% of Nigeria’s MSMEs have shut down due to high capital costs, this kind of rate hike only kills productivity,” Akinyemi warned.
While calling for economic sovereignty Akinyemi acknowledged the need for global outlooks in economic planning, Akinyemi emphasized that national interests must take precedence over external models.
“Governor Cardoso’s worldview might be global, but economic command centres must remain nationally sensitive,” he said. “We risk turning Nigeria into an economic laboratory instead of a functioning ecosystem for real people.”
He referenced countries like Japan, Rwanda, and Singapore as models of economic sustainability based on trust, long-term planning, and targeted sector development rather than imported ideologies.
“Japan retains 53 percent of the world’s oldest companies because it values institutional trust and family-rooted enterprise systems,” Akinyemi said. “Nigeria, under Cardoso, is scaling confusion—not clarity.”
On EFCC, Customs, and Questions of Accountability Akinyemi noted that turning his attention to corruption, called on the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to go beyond “barking” and start “biting,” referencing recent allegations raised at a National Assembly hearing against the Comptroller General of Customs and the Minister of Finance.
“Corruption at the apex of finance and trade can tank investor confidence faster than a currency crash,” he stated. “If these allegations are swept under the carpet, the EFCC might as well be renamed the ‘Economic Fiction and Cosmetic Commission.’”
On the ‘economy of votes’ and 2027 with the next general elections approaching, Akinyemi warned that political survival will depend not on propaganda but on real economic delivery.
“The fuel of reelection is not rhetoric—it is ‘stomach infrastructure,’” he wrote. “Performance, not propaganda, will determine 2027.”
According to him, economic hardship has become a political metric—what he described as “the economy of votes.” Rising inflation, unstable exchange rates, and food insecurity are issues the average voter feels daily and will carry into the polling booths.
While stating the need for cabinet reshuffle against this backdrop, Akinyemi urged President Tinubu to shake up his cabinet before October 1st, Nigeria’s Independence Day, warning that failure to act could mirror the downfall of former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
“There is no economic miracle without the right drivers,” he said. “If a minister cannot shift the economic tide within 18 months, they must give way.”
He also criticised the proposed extension of the tenure of the current Inspector General of Police, arguing that it sends the wrong message amid rising insecurity.
“At a time when insecurity costs us 2 percent of GDP annually, extending the tenure of a security chief who has failed to overhaul the system undermines reform,” Akinyemi stated. “Tinubu should not bend laws to keep underperformers in power.”
On defining October 1st Akinyemi describing Independence Day as a “decision hour,” calling on the President to demonstrate leadership through action—not just celebration.
“Nigerians are tired. Investors are nervous. And the poor are hungry,” he wrote. “October 1st must mark a new beginning—a time to scale reforms, not stumble further.”
He concluded with a stark message for the presidency saying “Reshuffle or retrench. Reform or regret. Scale or stumble. The President has one job now—tilt the economy toward the economy of votes.”
