President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has become one of the most debated governments in Nigeria’s democratic history. Supporters hail him as a courageous reformer willing to take difficult decisions that previous presidents avoided. Critics see him as the architect of the worst cost-of living crisis many Nigerians have experienced since the return to democracy in 1999.
As Nigeria enters the fourth year of the administration, the political question is no longer whether reforms were necessary, but whether ordinary Nigerians have benefited from them.
The Biggest Political Gamble: Fuel Subsidy Removal
On his inauguration day in May 2023, President Tinubu declared that “fuel subsidy is gone.”
Politically, it was a bold move. Economists had long argued that subsidy payments were enriching a few powerful interests while draining government finances.
But for ordinary Nigerians, the immediate consequence was painful:
Petrol prices rose sharply.
Transportation costs increased.
Food prices skyrocketed.
Small businesses struggled to survive.
The APC government argues that subsidy removal saved trillions of naira and prevented national bankruptcy. The opposition counters that while government revenues increased, the suffering of citizens increased even faster.
Three years later, many Nigerians still ask a simple question: If subsidy removal was necessary, where are the visible benefits?
Economy: Good Statistics, Tough Reality
The Tinubu administration often points to positive economic indicators:
Increased government revenue.
Improved foreign reserves.
More investor confidence.
Greater state allocations from the Federation Account.
Governors across party lines now receive significantly higher monthly allocations than before.
Yet politics is rarely decided by economic statistics.
Voters judge governments through:
Food prices.
Rent.
School fees.
Electricity bills.
Transportation costs.
In these areas, many Nigerians believe life has become more difficult than it was in 2023.
This explains why government officials celebrate macroeconomic reforms while ordinary citizens complain about hardship. Both sides are speaking from different realities.
Security: Progress or Persistent Crisis?
During the 2023 campaign, security was one of the APC’s strongest promises.
The government can point to:
Elimination of several terrorist commanders.
Rescue of kidnapped victims.
Increased military operations.
Improved intelligence coordination.
However, politics is local.
A farmer in Zamfara whose village was attacked, a trader kidnapped in Kaduna, or a community displaced in Borno may not feel the impact of those military successes.
The truth lies somewhere in between:
Security agencies have recorded tactical victories, but Nigeria has not yet achieved strategic victory against insecurity.
Banditry, kidnapping and communal violence remain major political liabilities for the administration.
Poverty: The Opposition’s Strongest Weapon
No issue has given opposition parties more ammunition than rising poverty.
Before Tinubu’s reforms, many Nigerians struggled.
After the reforms, millions found themselves struggling even more.
The opposition frequently argues that:
Inflation has eroded incomes.
The middle class is shrinking.
Youth unemployment remains high.
Hunger has become widespread.
The APC responds that these difficulties are temporary and are the price of correcting decades of economic mismanagement.
Politically, however, governments are judged by present realities, not future promises.
APC’s Political Strength: A Weak Opposition
One major advantage for Tinubu is that the opposition remains fragmented.
The ruling APC continues to attract defections from:
PDP.
Labour Party.
Smaller political parties.
Many governors, senators and House members have moved closer to the ruling party.
This has strengthened APC’s national reach but has also generated criticism that Nigeria is gradually moving toward a dominant-party system.
The irony is that while economic hardship may weaken public support for the government, opposition disunity continues to strengthen APC politically.
Internal Party Democracy: APC and Opposition Under Scrutiny
Another political debate concerns internal democracy.
Within APC, critics complain about:
Influence of powerful political godfathers.
Control of party structures.
Limited grassroots participation in key decisions.
The same accusations are levelled against PDP and other opposition parties.
The reality is that internal democracy remains one of the weakest aspects of Nigerian politics regardless of party affiliation.
National Unity: A Work in Progress
National unity remains a sensitive issue.
Supporters argue that Tinubu has maintained Nigeria’s stability despite enormous economic pressures.
Critics believe certain appointments and policies have deepened perceptions of regional imbalance.
The administration has consistently called for national unity, but economic hardship has often amplified ethnic, religious and regional grievances.
In politics, hunger often speaks louder than rhetoric.
Accountability and Transparency
The administration deserves credit for pushing fiscal reforms and improving revenue collection.
However, many Nigerians continue to ask:
Why is the cost of governance still high?
Why do politicians continue to enjoy luxury while citizens endure austerity?
Why are government expenditures not more transparent?
These questions have become central to the political debate surrounding the administration.
The Political Verdict After Three Years
What Tinubu Can Claim as Success
× Removal of fuel subsidy.
× Exchange-rate reforms.
× Increased government revenues.
× More funds to states and local governments.
× Attraction of foreign investment.
× Major infrastructure projects.
× Political stability within£ the ruling party.
What Critics Consider Failures
* Rising cost of living.
* High inflation.
* Widespread poverty.
* Persistent insecurity.
* Slow improvement in living standards.
* Weak public confidence in economic recovery.
Looking Toward 2027
As the administration enters its final full year before the next election cycle dominates national politics, the battle for public opinion will intensify.
The APC will campaign on:
Economic reforms.
Infrastructure development.
Long-term recovery.
Political stability.
The opposition will campaign on:
Hunger.
Inflation.
Poverty.
Insecurity.
Cost of living.
Ultimately, Nigerians may not judge the Tinubu administration by GDP growth, foreign reserves or government revenues. They are more likely to ask:
“Am I living better today than I was in 2023?”
If the answer becomes “yes” for a majority of Nigerians before 2027, Tinubu’s reforms may be remembered as painful but necessary.
If the answer remains “no,” history may record his administration as one that pursued bold economic reforms but struggled to translate them into improved living conditions for ordinary citizens.
That is the political crossroads at which Nigeria stands today.
Cliff Stanley
Political Scientist /Analyst
Cliffstanley3@gmail.com
07032826319